As we kick off meteorological winter Friday, the first day of December, a strong El Niño is the main factor to watch as we predict D.C. area weather for the month ahead. Consistent with our winter outlook issued in early November, we are forecasting near- to above-normal temperatures in December and not much snow.
After near-average highs around 50 degrees Friday, temperatures are forecast to surge warmer this weekend with highs near or above 60 before cooling off closer to normal again next week. By month’s end, we project December’s average temperature will end up in the 41- to 44-degree range, near or a bit above the norm of 41.7 degrees.
For precipitation, we project from 3.25 to 4 inches for the month. That’s fairly close to or a bit above the December average of 3.41 inches. That might not translate to much snow if temperatures lean to the warm side, although snow potential is hard to predict more than about a week ahead of time.
What computer models predict for the month
Computer models support a temperature forecast range from near to a couple of degrees warmer than normal for December. These are the latest temperature simulations from the American (left) and European (right) models:
Models suggest a decent amount of precipitation during December, near or a little more than normal. However, with temperatures expected to lean warmer than normal, it may be difficult to get much accumulating snow. Our projection favors a trace to 2 inches of snow for the month compared to the average of 1.7 inches.
For now, models favor more storminess on the East Coast during the second half of December compared to the first half. January and especially February should have more opportunities to see the combination of precipitation and colder weather that could enable us to see our snowiest winter in five years.
Typically with El Niño, the warmest weather is found from Chicago to Calgary in December, while the East Coast and South can experience occasional storminess that reduces warmth. One wild card is that while the ongoing El Niño is considered to be strong, the atmosphere hasn’t yet responded the way it usually does.
November recap
November in Washington ended up slightly drier and cooler than normal. The average temperature of 49.6 degrees was just 0.3 degrees cooler than normal, tying 1957 and 1934 for the 106th coldest November on record. The 2.51 inches of rain was 0.4 inches drier than normal, or the 82nd driest on record.
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This outcome nearly matches our November outlook issued at the start of the month, which called for an average temperature of 47 to 49 degrees and rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches.
November was quite variable with nearly an equal amount of warm vs. cool or cold days:
In terms of November weather extremes, only Washington Dulles International Airport reported records:
- Nov. 8: Dulles’s high of 79 degrees tied the calendar day record from 2022.
- Nov. 9: Dulles’s high of 81 degrees broke the calendar day record of 78 from 1994.
- Nov. 21: Dulles’s rainfall of 2.15 inches broke the calendar day record of 0.83 inches record from 2005.
Year to date
Washington’s 2023 is nearly complete with the year tracking to be one of the warmest on record and rather dry as well. For temperatures, this year is still the third-warmest as of the end of November:
2012 continues to be our hottest year thanks to that summery March and very hot summer.
Otherwise, on the rainfall side, we continue to be the 16th driest with maybe some assistance ahead in December:
Dan Stillman contributed to this report.
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